英语翻译电力负荷预测是电力企业规划部门的重要工作之一,准确的负荷预测是现代电力系统规划以及经济、安全运行的关键要求.灰色预测是近年来应用比较广泛的一种预测方法.基本灰色预
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英语翻译电力负荷预测是电力企业规划部门的重要工作之一,准确的负荷预测是现代电力系统规划以及经济、安全运行的关键要求.灰色预测是近年来应用比较广泛的一种预测方法.基本灰色预
英语翻译
电力负荷预测是电力企业规划部门的重要工作之一,准确的负荷预测是现代电力系统规划以及经济、安全运行的关键要求.灰色预测是近年来应用比较广泛的一种预测方法.基本灰色预测模型（本文采用GM（1,1）模型）用于负荷按指数增长态势变化时,预测精度比较高,但是影响负荷的因素很多、原始数据离散度较大时,精度就不够理想.在分析基本灰色负荷预测模型GM（1,1）的基础上,对原始数据和预测残差分别进行了修正改进,进而修正负荷预测值,使预测精度得以提高.采用了滑动平均和20%修匀法对原始数列进行改造及对建立残差模型对普通灰色模型进行改进,通过算例分析,将改进的灰色模型与普通的GM（1,1）模型比较,验证了改进模型具有误差小,精度高的优点.
英语翻译电力负荷预测是电力企业规划部门的重要工作之一,准确的负荷预测是现代电力系统规划以及经济、安全运行的关键要求.灰色预测是近年来应用比较广泛的一种预测方法.基本灰色预
Power load forecasting power enterprise planning department is one of the most important work, precise load forecast is modern power system planning and economic, safe operation of the key requirements. Grey forecasting is in recent years is widely predicted a kind of method. Basic grey forecasting model (using GM (1, 1) model) used to load exponentially growth situation changes, the forecasting accuracy is higher, but the impact load factors many and original data discrete degrees is bigger, not ideal accuracy. On the analysis of the basic gray load forecasting model GM (1, 1), on the basis of original data and predict residual respectively, and revised improvement, modified load prediction prediction accuracy can be improved. Adopts the sliding average and 20% of the original series fix well method to establish reforming and residual model for ordinary grey model was improved, and through the analysis of the example, will improve with the ordinary grey model GM (1, 1) model to compare, verified model has little error and high precision advantages.