英语翻译This paper focuses on ways in which the discount cash flow approach can be adapted to value forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows.I do this by deriving adjusted discounted cash flow formulas that incorporat

英语翻译This paper focuses on ways in which the discount cash flow approach can be adapted to value forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows.I do this by deriving adjusted discounted cash flow formulas that incorporat
英语翻译
This paper focuses on ways in which the discount cash flow approach can be adapted to value forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows.I do this by deriving adjusted discounted cash flow formulas that incorporate the deviations of the forecasted cash flows from the unobservable expected cash flows.I imagine a simple setting in which the forecasted cash flows differ from the unobservable expected cash flows in a well-defined way.Specifically,I assume the expected cash flows equal the forecasted cash flows plus a missing component.Depending on the characterization of the missing component,I get different adjustments to the discount cash flow formula.
The idea of adjusting the discounted cash flow formula for inaccurate forecasts is not novel and those adjustments generally increase the DCF discount rate.Poterba and Summers (1995) show that managers often increase the discount rate beyond market-based cost of capital measures and suggest that one reason for this is to account for optimistic cash flow forecasts.Zenner,Berkovitz and Clark (2009) report that the cash flows used in valuation are typically derived from base-case scenarios that do not include the “possibility of severe downside scenarios.” As a result,the base-case cash flow forecasts are not expected cash flows.They report that “[b]ecause it is challenging to adjust cash flows for downside scenarios,increasing the internal hurdle rate when evaluating new projects is common practice.”
Venture capital firms also use high discount rates when evaluating potential investments.Sahlman (2009) describes the “venture capital method” of valuation in which potential investments are valued by discounting forecasted terminal value,estimated assuming the success of the project,by discount rates that range from 35% to 80%,with the discount rates decreasing as the project successfully advance through its stages of development.Sahlman explores several different explanations for these high discount rates used by venture capitalists,including as an adjustment for the overly optimistic forecasted cash flow that is higher than the expected cash flow,by definition,because it is based on the assumption of a successful outcome.
Similarly,valuations of international projects or firms often include a “country risk premium” as part of the discount rate.The country risk premium is generally not intended as an adjustment for inflation differences which are included elsewhere or for mis-measurement of systematic risk.Instead,as shown by Esty (2002),the country risk premium can be interpreted as an adjustment for over-optimistic forecasted cash flows that ignore downside scenarios related to political risks such as higher taxes and other forms of expropriation.

英语翻译This paper focuses on ways in which the discount cash flow approach can be adapted to value forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows.I do this by deriving adjusted discounted cash flow formulas that incorporat
本文着重论述如何在现金流量贴现的方法能适应值预测现金流,预期的措施都是偏见现金流量表.我这样做现金流贴现公式推导调整,他们的造型融入了协同预测现金流将从观察现金流量表.我想一个简单的这样环境下不同于预测现金流将观察一个定义明确的现金流量.具体地说,我猜预期现金流量相等的预测现金流加上一名失踪的组成部分.根据表征失踪的组成部分,我得去不同的调整现金流量贴现公式.
调整的想法现金流贴现公式预测不准确、不小说的通常增加时有调整折现率.Poterba,夏季(1995)表明,管理者经常增加折现率超过市场资本成本措施与建议,原因之一是,占乐观的现金流转预测.Zenner,Berkovitz和克拉克(2009)的一份报告声称,现金流量用于评估通常来自base-case的情景,不包括“可能严重的下降的情况.”结果,base-case现金流预测将现金流.他们报告说,“[b]因为揭示现金流量调节不利的情况下,提高了内部的贴现率新项目评估时是常见的做法.”
风险投资公司也使用高贴现率当评估潜在的投资.萨尔曼(2009)描述了风险资本价值法”的潜在价值的投资来贴现终值预测,估计假定这个项目的成功,范围从35%的折算率80%,贴现率降低项目成功晋级下它的发展阶段.不同的解释了萨尔曼使用这些高贴现率,包括风险投资家作为调节的过于乐观预测现金流比预期的高的现金流,根据定义,因为它假设基础上的一个成功的交易结果.
同样,估值的国际项目或企业经常包括“国家风险溢价做为折现率.这个国家一般风险溢价是不能作为通货膨胀调整到其他地方或被包括的差异为mis-measurement系统的风险.相反,表示Esty(2002),国家风险溢价调整可以被解释为对过度乐观的预测现金流,忽视下降的情况与政治的风险,如更高的税收和其他形式的侵占

本文着重论述如何在现金流量贴现的方法能适应值预测现金流,预期的措施都是偏见现金流量表。我这样做现金流贴现公式推导调整,他们的造型融入了协同预测现金流将从观察现金流量表。我想一个简单的这样环境下不同于预测现金流将观察一个定义明确的现金流量。具体地说,我猜预期现金流量相等的预测现金流加上一名失踪的组成部分。根据表征失踪的组成部分,我得去不同的调整现金流量贴现公式。
调整的想法现金流贴现公式...

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本文着重论述如何在现金流量贴现的方法能适应值预测现金流,预期的措施都是偏见现金流量表。我这样做现金流贴现公式推导调整,他们的造型融入了协同预测现金流将从观察现金流量表。我想一个简单的这样环境下不同于预测现金流将观察一个定义明确的现金流量。具体地说,我猜预期现金流量相等的预测现金流加上一名失踪的组成部分。根据表征失踪的组成部分,我得去不同的调整现金流量贴现公式。
调整的想法现金流贴现公式预测不准确、不小说的通常增加时有调整折现率。Poterba,夏季(1995)表明,管理者经常增加折现率超过市场资本成本措施与建议,原因之一是,占乐观的现金流转预测。Zenner,Berkovitz和克拉克(2009)的一份报告声称,现金流量用于评估通常来自base-case的情景,不包括“可能严重的下降的情况。”结果,base-case现金流预测将现金流。他们报告说,“[b]因为揭示现金流量调节不利的情况下,提高了内部的贴现率新项目评估时是常见的做法。”
风险投资公司也使用高贴现率当评估潜在的投资。萨尔曼(2009)描述了风险资本价值法”的潜在价值的投资来贴现终值预测,估计假定这个项目的成功,范围从35%的折算率80%,贴现率降低项目成功晋级下它的发展阶段。不同的解释了萨尔曼

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