英语翻译Andrew Busch,global currency and public policy strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Chicago,pointed out that December may have been a turning point for the dollar.The dollar gained ground against other currencies during the month even as

英语翻译Andrew Busch,global currency and public policy strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Chicago,pointed out that December may have been a turning point for the dollar.The dollar gained ground against other currencies during the month even as
英语翻译
Andrew Busch,global currency and public policy strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Chicago,pointed out that December may have been a turning point for the dollar.The dollar gained ground against other currencies during the month even as stocks continued to surge.
Busch said that it is telling that the dollar finally started to move up on good economic news.He believes that the reason for this is that there is a growing sense that the Federal Reserve may look to unwind some of its lending programs over the course of 2010.
As I pointed out in Monday's column,some even think that Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke and the rest of the policy-setters at the Fed may even begin to modestly raise interest rates toward the end of the year.
"The nice dollar rally through the end of last year was due to shift in expectations about the speed of a U.S.exit strategy from its easing programs.That will likely continue," Busch said.
But Busch quickly added that unless Bernanke or other Fed members start to strongly signal that rate hikes are really in the cards,the dollar could wind up slip sliding away again.(Apologies to Paul Simon for using your song title in something as mundane as a currency story.)
"The fate of the dollar is in the hands of Ben Bernanke.If he begins the exit process and starts to raise interest rates,the dollar will perform okay this year," Busch said.
Dan Cook,senior market analyst with IG Markets in Chicago,said that he's also expecting the dollar to fare better this year.However,he's not convinced that the days of the dollar being considered a safe haven are over just yet.
Cook said that the labor and housing markets still remain weak,which could keep the Fed on the sidelines for a while longer.And if that's the case,Cook said the rally in stocks could fizzle out and investors will flock back to the dollar.
"The employment situation is still terrible.So more dollar strength could be driven by negative economic news," he said.
Either way,currency analysts are predicting a rebound for the dollar.So just how much stronger could it get?Serebriakov is forecasting that the dollar will end 2010 at about $1.32 against the euro,which would be about 8% stronger than current levels.
Still,Busch said that other currencies may fare better against the dollar.He pointed out that any country that has heavy exposure to oil,gold and other hot commodity markets,such as Canada and Australia,could gain against the greenback.
And at the end of the day,Busch said that trying to predict the direction of the dollar and other currencies -- especially in such a dynamic time for the global economy -- is extremely difficult.
"The currency market is really messy.Sometimes it makes sense and sometimes it doesn't,but at some point in 2010 the currency markets will make everyone look rather foolish.That's what they do," he said.

英语翻译Andrew Busch,global currency and public policy strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Chicago,pointed out that December may have been a turning point for the dollar.The dollar gained ground against other currencies during the month even as
Andrew Busch说,全球货币和芝加哥BMO资本市场公共政策策略,指出,12月可能是对美元的转折点.美元上涨月份地面即使股市继续大幅上升对其他货币.
布希说,这是告诉认为,美元终于开始进入经济的好消息了.他认为,这样做的原因是,人们越来越感觉到,美联储可能看起来放松对2010年过程中的一些贷款项目.
正如我在周一的专栏中指出,有些人甚至认为,美国联邦储备委员会主席伯南克和其他的政策制定者在美联储甚至可能开始小幅提高对今年年底利率.
“通过去年年底不错的美元反弹是由于转变对美国退出战略计划,从速度放缓的预期.这很可能会继续,”布希说.
但是,布希很快补充说,除非伯南克和其他美联储成员开始强烈的信号,表明加息是在卡真的,美元可能结束支路滑走了.（使用的货币一样平凡的故事,歌曲标题保罗西蒙道歉.）
他说：“美元的命运掌握在伯南克的手中.如果他开始退出进程,并开始提高利率,美元将执行好今年的”布希说.
丹库克,在芝加哥与IG Markets机构高级市场分析师说,他也预计美元票价比去年更胜一筹.然而,他并不认为,美元的日子被认为是一种安全的避风港只是尚未超过.
库克说,劳动和住房市场依然疲软,这可能继续一段时间的观望美联储.如果是那样的话,库克说,股市的反弹可能归于失败,投资者纷纷回到美元.
“就业形势依然可怕.因此,更多的美元强势可能被负面经济的消息,”他说.
无论哪种方式,货币分析人士预计,对美元反弹.因此,到底有多少强大难道得到什么呢?Serebriakov预测,美元将结束对美元,欧元,这将是约8％,比目前的水平1.32 2010年强.
不过,布希表示,其他货币兑美元的票价更好.他指出,任何国家,有大量暴露于石油,黄金和其他商品市场的热点,如加拿大和澳大利亚,还有可能赢得兑美元.
并在一天结束,布希表示,要预测美元和其他货币的方向,特别是在这样一个全球经济的动态时间 - - 是非常困难的.
“货币市场是非常的混乱.有时是有道理,有时没有,但在某些问题在2010年货币市场将让大家看看是愚蠢的.那是他们做什么,”他说.