英语翻译Inflation in emerging economiesAn old enemy rears its headMay 22nd 2008 | HONG KONGFrom The Economist print editionEmerging economies risk repeating the same mistakes that the developed world made in the inflationary 1970s EVEN as America

英语翻译Inflation in emerging economiesAn old enemy rears its headMay 22nd 2008 | HONG KONGFrom The Economist print editionEmerging economies risk repeating the same mistakes that the developed world made in the inflationary 1970s EVEN as America
英语翻译
Inflation in emerging economies
An old enemy rears its head
May 22nd 2008 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
Emerging economies risk repeating the same mistakes that the developed world made in the inflationary 1970s
EVEN as America's economy teeters on the brink of recession and many European economies are slowing,central bankers in rich countries fear rising inflation.Yet the risks they face are smaller than those in emerging economies,where inflation has risen far more over the past year to its highest for nine years.There are also an alarming number of similarities between developing economies today and developed economies in the early 1970s,when the Great Inflation took off.Are the young upstarts heading for trouble?
China's official rate of consumer-price inflation is at a 12-year high of 8.5%,up from 3% a year ago (see chart 1).Russia's has leapt from 8% to over 14%.Most Gulf oil producers also have double-digit rates.India's wholesale-price inflation rate (the Reserve Bank's preferred measure) is 7.8%,a four-year high.Indonesian inflation,already 9%,is likely to reach 12% next month,when the government is expected to raise the price of subsidised fuel by 25-30%.
Inflation in Latin America remains low relative to its ignominious past.Even so,Brazil's rate has risen to 5% from less than 3% early last year.Chile's has leapt from 2.5% to 8.3%.Most alarming are Venezuela,where the rate is 29.3%,and Argentina.Officially,Argentina's inflation rate is 8.9%,but few economists believe the numbers.Morgan Stanley estimates that the true figure is 23%,up from 14.3% last year.
Indeed,official figures understate inflationary pressures in many emerging economies.Widespread government subsidies and price controls are one reason,and price indices are often skewed by a lack of data or government cheating.China's true inflation rate may be higher because the consumer-price index does not properly cover private services.Delays in data collection in India can mean big revisions to inflation:the final number for early March was almost two percentage points higher than the original.The latest wholesale-price inflation rate might therefore be pushed up to 9-10%.If measured correctly,five of the ten biggest emerging economies could have inflation rates of 10% or more by mid-summer.Two-thirds of the world's population may then be struggling with double-digit inflation.

英语翻译Inflation in emerging economiesAn old enemy rears its headMay 22nd 2008 | HONG KONGFrom The Economist print editionEmerging economies risk repeating the same mistakes that the developed world made in the inflationary 1970s EVEN as America
在涌现的经济的通货膨胀
一个老敌人抚养它的头
2008年5月22日 | 香港
从经济学家印刷品编辑
涌现的经济冒险重复被开发的世界在通货膨胀的20世纪70年代犯的同样错误
既使美国的经济蹒跚地走在后退的边缘,并且许多欧洲经济减慢,富有的国家恐惧上升的通货膨胀的中央银行家. 他们面对的风险小于那些在涌现的经济,通货膨胀在去年上升了到它最高九年. 当巨大通货膨胀离开了,今天也有相似性的一个惊心的数字在发展中的经济之间的和被开发的经济在20世纪70年代初. 年轻暴发户朝向为麻烦?
消费者价格通货膨胀的中国的官价汇兑率在12年上流8.5%,从3%起一年前(参见图1). 俄国的从8%飞跃了到超过14%. 多数海湾石油生产者也有双数字率. 印度的批发价格通货膨胀率(储备银行的首选的措施)是7.8%,四年的上流. 当政府由25-30%时,预计提高给津贴的燃料的价格印度尼西亚通货膨胀,已经9%,可能下个月到达12%.
通货膨胀在拉丁美洲依然是低相对它的可耻过去. 即使如此,巴西的率上升到5%从少于3%早期去年. 智利的从2.5%飞跃了到8.3%. 多数惊动是委内瑞拉,率是29.3%和阿根廷. 正式地,阿根廷的通货膨胀率是8.9%,但是少量经济学家相信数字. 摩根・斯坦利去年估计真实的图是23%,从14.3%起.
的确,正式图保守地说在许多涌现的经济的通货膨胀的压力. 普遍国库补助金和物价调控是一个原因,并且物价指数由缺乏数据或政府欺诈经常歪曲. 因为消费者价格索引不适当地包括私有服务,中国的真实的通货膨胀率也许更高. 在搜集数据的延迟在印度可能意味大修正到通货膨胀： 最后数字3月上旬高于原物是差不多二个百分点. 因此最新的批发价格通货膨胀率也许被推挤由9-10%决定. 如果测量恰当地,五十最大的涌现的经济能在盛夏之前有通货膨胀率的10%或更多. 世界的人口的三分之二也许然后奋斗与双数字通货膨胀.